The high level of geopolitical and policy uncertainty at present brings with it substantial risks to the baseline projections. One possible risk is the escalation of trade restrictive measures. An illustrative exercise, where bilateral tariffs are raised further on all non-commodity imports into the United States with corresponding increases in tariffs applied to non-commodity imports from the United States in all other countries, shows that global output could fall by around 0.3% by the third year, and global inflation could rise by 0.4 percentage points per annum on average over the first three years. The impact of these shocks would be magnified if policy uncertainty were to increase further or there was widespread risk repricing in financial markets. These would add to the downward pressures on corporate and household spending around the world.