“Having rescued the economy from damage done by the Coalition and stabilising government debt, the ALP is polling well for a second term in office.”
- An interesting take from Koukalas from back in July. Still valid?
Six months is a long time in politics, and Albo’s popularity has slipped considerably since then. A lot of those mid-suburban seats that Labor unexpectedly swept in the last election will be up in the air, and electoral funding reforms are likely to hit the teals hard, to the conservatives’ advantage.
The observation I found most interesting here is obvious but hadn’t occurred to me. That is that the RBA is going to find it increasingly difficult to justify not reducing interest rates going into the election. As much as that has almost nothing to do with the government if voters are feeling economic pressures lifting and the ALP can get some media traction with it they’ve got a chance.
IIRC July was also at the start of the CFMEU allegations, before the corrupt government administration came into effect.
The CFMEU had around 125,000 members as of a year ago, and obviously we can’t assume they’ll all follow their leaders’ advice and swing lefter-than-Labor but having seen the huge presence of other union members marching along side them and having seen the former Labor supporters in my union express their shock and betrayal, there’s a real chance of that big chunk of the labour movement abandoning Labor.
They inherited a bit of a mess thanks to covid, the global economy and the previous government. Inflation seems under control but I think they could still be punished by the many people who are struggling. Also they have created divisions with unions and other traditional supporters that are going to be an ongoing issue. The ALP are on some dangerous ground blessing some unions over others depending on factional support and politics instead of the interests of workers. They shouldn’t take anything for granted.
A huge amount of power resides with the ultra wealthy who own the media platforms. Musk could go on the attack as he thinks he is God-Emporer of the world now. Murdoch will be hostile. Industry groups will be funding campaigns. Foreign governments and corporations will be funding anti-democratic, divisive politics to weaken us. They will need to work very hard and be very creative to get their message across in this environment.
I think we could very easily wake up to a Dutton government with the labor machine shaking their heads in disbelief. A huge proportion of the population get a completely different algorithmic feed of what is going on in the world and then they all form their echo chambers and it takes over the work place and community. The ALP will need to get out in the community and see how broken the information environment has become.
And for the people who think Albo has been piss-weak on some issues, the reality is the ALP can’t piss off the wrong people because of the above. They are going to have to sit in the middle, placate big business and fossil fuels and nibble away at stuff and be content with being the coalition-lite. Put a minor party or independent above them if you don’t like it but this isn’t the time to walk away.
They inherited a bit of a mess thanks to covid, the global economy and the previous government.
I like how during the 10 years of lnp government it felt like we heard “we’re cleaning up their mess!” what felt like all the time. But I don’t recall this government saying it beyond the first few weeks. Are their political strategists dumb? Maybe.
What is the point of saying it if the press won’t report it?
There were probably extenuating circumstances after 2019 but I have no idea what was going on under the Hockey and Morrison treasuries. Hockey might have been disinterested but Morrison was a disaster. They kept on taking on more debt and where was it going? Not increased services for taxpayers. Mates? Waste? Corruption? Who knows?
Our percentage of government debt to GDP still isn’t too bad in global terms. Even under the coalition while it was lax management and dodgy deals it wasn’t going to break the nation.
It was certainly going up under Gillard but very notable the massive outrage in the press ceased as that continued and considerably worsened under successive coalition governments. Extremely biased press coverage and complete dumbarsery from the Australian public to accept the media spin when the debt figures are public record.
I think this is really insightful analysis, great post. I often wonder why some of you key points around the headwinds that Labor faces (and progressive politics in general) don’t really get much of an airing.
It’s so obvious that LNP’s messages get boosted and the Labor ones get blunted when you pay attention to it. Sam happens when LNP are in Govt, so it’s not just a "going the opposite a voice- type thing.
Don’t even start on the amount of dark and dirty money, backroom influence and corporate interference.
Feels bleak sometimes, but sanity will prevail at some point. 🤞
Yay-aaaawn…
For the first time ever I reckon I’ll just donkey vote.
I have absolutely no faith at all in any of the big players in Australian politics. The LNP are selfish idiots who only care about their own personal interests. The Labor Party are only slightly less malicious and wasted their entire term on dumb shite like banning kids from social media, and are doing everything in their power to exacerbate the housing crisis by artificially increasing the Australian population.
The Greens are full of incompetent, idiots who want to pretend that migration doesn’t influence the housing supply (and HOW DARE YOU assume that more people = more competition, you racist!)
No one else has even the slightest chance of gaining any influence in Australian politics.
