This is an interesting take, especially coming from a non-haning focused tech website like Ars Technica. I feel like it’s been too long since people were truly hyped about half life 3 though, and this wouldn’t be enough.
People are increasingly unhappy with windows though, and the EoL of windows 10 may push people to Linux anyways.
I think his is underestimating how big HL3 is as a part of gaming culture. Half Life really wasn’t part of my generation, but I grew up with HL3 being memed constantly. The constant fake leaks and rumors have kept the idea alive. Just a couple months ago I saw a lot of people genuinely believe it was going to be announced during The Gaming Awards thanks to a leak that Valve would be present. Every gaming event has chat full of people spamming Half Life 3 memes. Plus, Alyx got a lot of younger gamers to play the series.
If Half-Life 3 were actually announced the hype would 100% be there, even if most of it will be from people who had never played the games.