New polling shows the BC Conservatives hold a slight lead in a tightening race less than a week before voting day.
A survey from the Angus Reid Institute conducted Oct. 15 to 19 shows the Conservatives have a three-point lead over the B.C. NDP, 46 per cent to 43 per cent, a margin that amounts to a statistical tie. The Green party is polling at eight per cent while “other,” which would include OneBC and CentreBC, are at three per cent.
The party leaders faced off on Oct. 14 in the only televised leadership debate of the campaign and this is the first poll to be released since then.
“But beyond the headline vote numbers, indications suggest the incumbent New Democrats, who called the election, face a tougher task in securing their support and getting voters to the polls on Oct. 24, amid greater uncertainty and weaker voter retention than their Conservative rivals,” said the Angus Reid Institute.
Three-quarters of BC Conservative voters say they’re very certain in their support (73%), compared to closer to half of BC NDP voters (54%). Further, 89 per cent of 2024 Conservatives say they’re supporting the party again, while the proportion of 2024 BC NDP voters returning drops to 74 per cent.
“Add to this weaker momentum for B.C. NDP Leader David Eby, even among his own party’s supporters, compared with that of B.C. Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson, and a key question emerges: will less enthusiastic New Democrat supporters turn out to vote, or stay home?” said the Angus Reid Institute.
By region, Metro Vancouver is a tight race, with the BC NDP (46%) and the BC Conservatives (45%) statistically tied. In 2024, the BC NDP carried the region by 10 points.
The Conservatives lead in the Fraser Valley (+20 over second place BC NDP) and the Interior (+17), while the BC NDP lead on the Island and North Coast (+14 over second place BC Conservatives).
Voters head to the polls on Oct. 24.
I sometimes think Eby is trying to lose.