I’d argue that you’re missing a really important piece of the puzzle in the analysis. The post-WW2 order was built on the fact that the US largely sat the war out, its industry developing while Europe and Asia lay in ruins. This unchallenged industrial dominance that was fueled by war profiteering and a continent-sized domestic market allowed the US to architect a global system that served its interests. The Soviet bloc, though ideologically formidable, was always on the back foot economically.
Today, the West is a shadow of its former self. BRICS now eclipses the G7 in purchasing power, and the gap continues to widen yearly. Europe, shackled by deindustrialization and an energy crisis it helped engineer, is entering recession. The US, drowning in $34 trillion debt and political dysfunction, isn’t riding to the rescue. Instead, it’s busy looting Europe’s corpse. The Inflation Reduction Act was a corporate raider’s playbook, poaching EU industries with subsidies while Germany’s factories are closing at a record pace.
This collapse of Western cohesion has profound implications. Russia, having outlasted NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine, no longer needs to negotiate. The US is pivoting to Asia, and they view Ukraine as a sunk cost. Europe, meanwhile, is trapped in a panic spiral. Having bet its entire security strategy on a Ukrainian victory, it now faces empowered Russia that will dictate terms.
The US is executing a fire sale as it retreats from Europe. By abandoning Ukraine, US frees up resources for its goal of containing China. But this desperation exposes the new reality that the era of unilateral US hegemony is over. Russia, aligned with the rising BRICS economies, no longer needs a “G2” condominium with America. Why bargain with a declining power when you can pick off its allies?
Europe’s political decay will accelerate this shift. Pro-Russian parties are gaining ground from Hungary to Slovakia, capitalizing on voter rage over inflation and austerity. The EU’s response is predictably to use increasingly Draconian measures to “protect democracy”. It’s a strategy that exposes their weakness and fuels domestic discontent in Europe. Russia need only wait as the bloc fractures under the weight of its own hypocrisy.
The US will soon plead for off-ramps in Ukraine, offering concessions to Russia to salvage its Asian pivot. But Russia has no incentive to deal because they hold all the cards. On top of that, BRICS offers better returns. The West’s unipolar fantasy is dead. The future is multipolar, and utterly indifferent to America’s nostalgia for dominance.
I’d argue that you’re missing a really important piece of the puzzle in the analysis. The post-WW2 order was built on the fact that the US largely sat the war out, its industry developing while Europe and Asia lay in ruins. This unchallenged industrial dominance that was fueled by war profiteering and a continent-sized domestic market allowed the US to architect a global system that served its interests. The Soviet bloc, though ideologically formidable, was always on the back foot economically.
Today, the West is a shadow of its former self. BRICS now eclipses the G7 in purchasing power, and the gap continues to widen yearly. Europe, shackled by deindustrialization and an energy crisis it helped engineer, is entering recession. The US, drowning in $34 trillion debt and political dysfunction, isn’t riding to the rescue. Instead, it’s busy looting Europe’s corpse. The Inflation Reduction Act was a corporate raider’s playbook, poaching EU industries with subsidies while Germany’s factories are closing at a record pace.
This collapse of Western cohesion has profound implications. Russia, having outlasted NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine, no longer needs to negotiate. The US is pivoting to Asia, and they view Ukraine as a sunk cost. Europe, meanwhile, is trapped in a panic spiral. Having bet its entire security strategy on a Ukrainian victory, it now faces empowered Russia that will dictate terms.
The US is executing a fire sale as it retreats from Europe. By abandoning Ukraine, US frees up resources for its goal of containing China. But this desperation exposes the new reality that the era of unilateral US hegemony is over. Russia, aligned with the rising BRICS economies, no longer needs a “G2” condominium with America. Why bargain with a declining power when you can pick off its allies?
Europe’s political decay will accelerate this shift. Pro-Russian parties are gaining ground from Hungary to Slovakia, capitalizing on voter rage over inflation and austerity. The EU’s response is predictably to use increasingly Draconian measures to “protect democracy”. It’s a strategy that exposes their weakness and fuels domestic discontent in Europe. Russia need only wait as the bloc fractures under the weight of its own hypocrisy.
The US will soon plead for off-ramps in Ukraine, offering concessions to Russia to salvage its Asian pivot. But Russia has no incentive to deal because they hold all the cards. On top of that, BRICS offers better returns. The West’s unipolar fantasy is dead. The future is multipolar, and utterly indifferent to America’s nostalgia for dominance.