No, it has more to do with organizing progress. Lets say, you are some random person in the USA or a different country with problematic status. The theory of change is to get from there to something more democratic.

Basically, this means fighting effective: instead of randomly trying things and being frustrated that things dont change, you look for specific things which amplify your power. In the context of the USA a simple theory of change would be: since the wealth of elon musk is tied to tesla, elon musk will fall if tesla falls. And that is one part of preventing donald trump and elon musk to dismantle democracy. You have the people on your side as the sympathy for Luigi Mangione shows. So, another important part of this theory of change would be to make the fediverse/lemmy/mastodon/etc more popular, since it is more difficult to prevent showing symphathy for luigi mangione (compared to reddit for instance).

We as random citizens dont have much power alone, but together we are strong. So being an activist means that your strategy is like a Block and tackle, a thing we in germany call “Flaschenzug”. Instead of trying to lift heavy things and break your back, you try to look for things to make things easy. You look for a lever, and that is the theory of change.

So i recommend reading many books. Many smart people have written about their theory of change without calling it like that

(Also, right wing people have a theory of change to dismantle democracy. Which means, to fight them, you need to understand their strategy)