There has always been a range of estimates of how much warming we’ll get for a given amount of dumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. What I think is going on is that as we get closer to the boundaries of maybe-not-crashing-civilization levels of warming, the consequences of reality matching one estimate or another has become salient.
Dude, the ice was melting at the North Pole a couple days ago. Real world results show us in all of the fastest tracked models, and just like every year, we released more co2 than we did the year prior. This is why I can’t share the same optimism as people like Dr Michael Mann, why would I take the best case model when humanity exhibits worst case behavior?
Yeah, and with AI and all of these huge data centers, we’re raising electrical demands so much that replacing with renewables isn’t enough to stop fossil fuels. Not to mention that the effects aren’t linear. I.e. as temps go up, it’s not just hotter during x amount of days during the warmest days of the year. It pushes more days above freezing. So not only does ice melt faster on days above freezing, but there’s also more days above freezing.
And our Dear Leader here in the US is gonna approve even more coal power plants, citing AI as justification.
Fortunately coal is more expensive than renewables now and most companies see profit above politics. Just like the oil companies who were like “ok… We can drill with impunity, but it doesn’t make financial sense because we already have more permits than we need, so we won’t be looking for new permits anytime soon”. But I’m sure subsidies will be raised to take care of that.