RealClimate: There's been a bit of media whiplash on the issue of AMOC slowing lately - ranging from the AMOC being "on the brink of collapse" to it being "more stable than previously thought". AMOC, of course, refers to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, one of the worlds major ocean circulation systems which keeps the northern
It’s more that you can’t rely on a single press release or study to reach a definitive conclusion about complex systems. You can get a sense that there’s risk of major problems, but do so without concluding that we’re going to see Doomsday Next Tuesday with absolute certainty.
Exactly, we can push it off to Wednesday, and deal with it later. Actually, Thursday or Friday would be more convenient. Do you want to schedule something for next week? Maybe we could make it a once a month thing, and have drinks. Or like an annual gala or something. The bi-centennial celebration would be off the hook.
It’s more that you can’t rely on a single press release or study to reach a definitive conclusion about complex systems. You can get a sense that there’s risk of major problems, but do so without concluding that we’re going to see Doomsday Next Tuesday with absolute certainty.
On the other hand, jitter in a complex system is exactly what you expect to see when that system is undergoing a process of destabilization.
Exactly, we can push it off to Wednesday, and deal with it later. Actually, Thursday or Friday would be more convenient. Do you want to schedule something for next week? Maybe we could make it a once a month thing, and have drinks. Or like an annual gala or something. The bi-centennial celebration would be off the hook.