I’m not so sure that Russia will be interested in making deals with the US though. They’re likely to prefer to continue shifting trade towards more reliable partners like China. The reality is that Russia doesn’t need to make a deal here, they can just win militarily.
If I were Putin I would make deals with Trump and then just not follow through with them. “we’ll ship as much rare earths as you like at 10% below market value for the next 25 years if you stop sending weapons and money to ukraine and recognise the Donbas referendums as legitimate.” First shipment arrives, usa announces its support of the Russian position, second shipment never arrives, Putin tells trump “ok we’ll honor our deal when nato honors its pledge to not admit any nations east of germany.”
Thing is that Russia doesn’t want to be seen as being flaky. If they start doing shit like that then it will make it impossible for anyone to trust them going forward. And ultimately they don’t need to play games. They’re winning the war, and there’s nothing the west can do to stop that. I think Russia wants this conflict to end definitively on their terms so that it’s crystal clear to everyone that Russia will not be bullied by the west going forward.
You’re right, though politically it does favour Russia (and somewhat the US) to have the war won faster and with less blood.
I’m sure generals and diplomats on both sides aren’t above a neo-molotov-ribbentrop deal, knowing it won’t last forever. Biden was a bigger obstacle to that than Putin.
I’m not so sure that Russia will be interested in making deals with the US though. They’re likely to prefer to continue shifting trade towards more reliable partners like China. The reality is that Russia doesn’t need to make a deal here, they can just win militarily.
If I were Putin I would make deals with Trump and then just not follow through with them. “we’ll ship as much rare earths as you like at 10% below market value for the next 25 years if you stop sending weapons and money to ukraine and recognise the Donbas referendums as legitimate.” First shipment arrives, usa announces its support of the Russian position, second shipment never arrives, Putin tells trump “ok we’ll honor our deal when nato honors its pledge to not admit any nations east of germany.”
Thing is that Russia doesn’t want to be seen as being flaky. If they start doing shit like that then it will make it impossible for anyone to trust them going forward. And ultimately they don’t need to play games. They’re winning the war, and there’s nothing the west can do to stop that. I think Russia wants this conflict to end definitively on their terms so that it’s crystal clear to everyone that Russia will not be bullied by the west going forward.
You’re right, though politically it does favour Russia (and somewhat the US) to have the war won faster and with less blood.
I’m sure generals and diplomats on both sides aren’t above a neo-molotov-ribbentrop deal, knowing it won’t last forever. Biden was a bigger obstacle to that than Putin.