In 2024, Nate’s model accurately predicted the exact electoral map.
He doesn’t do any polling. He aggregates other pollsters, weights it based on past performance and then uses other factors (he calls them fundamentals) to produce an outcome. And I think it’s misguided to suggest that Democratic leadership is looking at Nate’s polls to reinforce their own positions.
It may even feel as though we’re Ping-Ponging between radically different futures, never quite certain what lies around the bend. Yet on the whole in 2024, polling did not experience much of a miss and had a reasonable year. Ms. Harris led by only one point in my final national polling average. And Donald Trump led in five of seven key states, albeit incredibly narrowly. The final polling averages were correct in 48 of 50 states.
The final Times/Siena national poll (including third-party candidates) had Mr. Trump one point ahead. There was plenty of data to support a Trump win.
Remember that the Biden campaign had an internal poll showing Trump winning ~48 states in a total landslide victory, but they maintained that Biden was the best candidate.
In 2024, Nate’s model accurately predicted the exact electoral map.
He doesn’t do any polling. He aggregates other pollsters, weights it based on past performance and then uses other factors (he calls them fundamentals) to produce an outcome. And I think it’s misguided to suggest that Democratic leadership is looking at Nate’s polls to reinforce their own positions.
Here’s a quote from a column he wrote for the NYT
Remember that the Biden campaign had an internal poll showing Trump winning ~48 states in a total landslide victory, but they maintained that Biden was the best candidate.