No one alive will experience a better climate than we have today. But young people will experience a much more dangerous and chaotic world in the future.

  • rekabis@lemmy.ca
    0·
    5 days ago

    We’re probably not heading into over 4.8 though. Probable outcomes are between 2.5 and 3.5 (both of which are horrific.)

    Unfortunately, that kind of thinking is badly out of date, and no longer in line with the evidence.

    Spoiler alert: it’s much, much worse than that.

    • cows_are_underrated@feddit.org
      0·
      4 days ago

      If you add up the current CO2 level of 424ppm, the effect of CH4 and the other greenhouse gases (+100ppm), and the effect of “albedo dimming” (+100ppm). Then we are at a level of +624ppm(CO2e).

      That’s about +6.5°C over baseline according to the paleoclimate record. The one that mainstream climate science DOESN’T use to calibrate CO2 levels to global temperatures from but that their “new numbers” for climate sensitivity are starting to match.

      If the Rate of Warming follows the pattern of the last few years. Then La Nina years should warm about +0.1°C per year. With “spikes” during El Nino years of +0.2°C up to +0.4°C PER YEAR.

      With 2 El Nino’s per decade and about 6 La Nina years we may be looking at a RoW of roughly +1.2°C of warming PER DECADE now.

      Guess I’m going to kill myself. This shit is fucked up.