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Cake day: September 12th, 2025

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  • Honestly I think the AES countries are going to do fine, China’s already pushing heavily towards autarky by reducing its need for foreign imports (see them moving away from coal in favour of renewables for energy generation.) as well as modernizing and expanding out food production considerably, honestly I’m quite confident china will be fine.

    I mean, the thing is non-ideological warlord states tend to have this tenancy of getting obliterated by ideological ones, for an example, during the Chinese warlord period the Kuomintang managed to destroy the Beiyang government largely because they had a ideological line and mass scale popular support (which they them subsequently lost.) but still ideoglical warlord states would likely be the ones to succeed the most over that of “clique” warlords





  • Eh, honestly I think there is credence to the idea that the russian government is giving more leeway to socialists since there heavily reliant on Chinese economic support (china buys like 40% of Russia’s energy exports which is is like nearly 10-20% of Russia’s state budget) so obviously this could be the Russian government feeling it has to give concessions to the socialists to maintain power and it’s relations with china but still.

    If Putin is being honest (which honestly I have no idea if he is) then we could potentially see some nationalizations of strategic industries in the future (maybe Gazprom as an example) but I don’t know.

    Also I don’t believe United Russia would be a big fan of this, this is something I disagree with Zyuganov actually, they would be very much against even the most flaccid of nationalisation and would fight fiercely against it, I think it should be noted that Putin has never been an official member of United Russia and technically leads Russia as an “Independent” candidate, so it is possible that Putin is realising which way the winds are blowing and he’s planning to jump ship to the KPRF, which is a possibility.

    Again, for all of Putin’s faults he is an incredible political operator, this was the guy whom outmanuvered Boris Yeltsin whom was being backed by the west at the time so that is impressive in itself.

    I think there’s also the economic situation to consider, Russia’s economic growth has slowed a shit load recently partially due to declining oil demand globally (thanks china) as well as Ukraine’s continued strikes on Russian oil infrastructure has significantly limited Russia’s ability to export oil, which is very problematic considering around 61% of Russia’s state budget comes from the export of good.

    There’s also the war in Ukraine, while Russia has made a lot of headway there it still doesn’t control the needed territory to declare a “victory”, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk continue to remain under Ukrainian control and a partial russian victory will require the entirety of the Donbass to fall under russian control, so the war can’t be ended until that objective has been completed.

    The war itself isn’t entirely non-beneficial though for Putin, for one it allows him to prevent the KPRF (or to a lesser extent the LDPR) from going militant due to the threat to being turned into an open air rape camp by the west poses, so for the most part two of Russia’s most powerful oppositional parties continue to remain cooperative with Putin for now at least.

    Of course continuing the war also overtime leads to war exhaustion to develop. While Putin has managed this considerly better than Zelensky by simply not introducing conscription, this has caused problems at the frontline as the Russian military often lacks the manpower to fill up the frontline which allows for the Ukrainians to make small scale gains and heavily slows russian advancement into Ukrainian territory, this seems to have come ahead recently as Russian advances towards Kramatorsk and Slovyansk seemed to have completely stalled, and while this could be partially due to autumn mud conditions, if this stalemate continues on for a year it’s safe to assume that both sides would be too exhausted to continue fighting and it’s likely a ceasefire arrangement will develop as a result.

    Regardless of the outcome I think Putin will likely seek to scapegoat United Russia, the conflict in Ukraine was, in the eyes of the russian people and government, supposed to be a relatively quick blitz offensive to depose the pro-epstein regime in Kiev, though said operation turned into 4 years of brutal trench warfare for both sides. And united Russia will likely be blamed as a result, this can be seen in the 2026 elections, where the elections where rigged to a far more considerable extent that previous elections had been, with western sources (yes I know, reliable but still) estimating that around 22 million ballots for United Russia were faked.

    Obviously Bourgeoise elections are Inherently biased in favour of the ruling Bourgeoise class so that’s not exactly surprising, what is though is how blatant the manipulation is within Russia, this suggests that United Russia has lost a lot of popularity in recent years, and is trying to make up for it with ballot stuffing at the polls.

    Also, a lot of United Russia’s popularity comes from Putin’s populism in the first place, with UR itself being a massive big tent of a shit load of bourgeoisie political factions that are largely only kept united by Putin, should Putin leave, well, it would be really fucking bad for UR

    In anycase, TL;Dr, I think what putin is planning is this (well maybe, whom knows)

    1. Blame the outcome of the war on United Russia and shift to KPRF.

    2. Use the FSB (which is in Putin’s control, not United Russia) to purge united Russia and elevate the KPRF.

    3. Appease the KPRF by purging oligarchs (aka capitalists but there form Eastern Europe so the scary western name “oligarch”) and instating Chinese style Market-socialist reforms, keeping his support with the petite bourgeoise (which do support Putin heavily, it’s one of his main support bases).

    4. Consolidate power by using Zyuganov to purge opponents in the KPRF, utilise soviet retoric and nostalgia to utterly obliterate support for rightists political movement and consodate further power.

    5. Profit.

    Obviously this could just be a crack pipe theory but I think there’s some credence to it.