Meh, this is how Tech has always worked. The list of companies that foresaw endless growth due to a temporary market advantage is long. As an example ask Intel how their DRAM production is looking these days. They were dominating the market with it in early 70s but by the early 80s they’d been entirely supplanted. Anybody still buying new ZIP drives? How much market relevance does MySpace or Napster have these days?
This particular stock “crash” is really just an investor driven blip that Nvidia will quickly put in its rearview mirror but its a signal flare that the AI Market in general and the GPU market in particular is ripe and waiting for disruption. That disruption is coming and it will arrive quicker than most realize.
I don’t see “the USA”, as in the Federal Government, running a DDoS against a Chinese AI company. I can see some private companies doing it but now we’re talking about a conspiracy. Without having more verifiable facts I think Occum’s Razor comes down on “Internet Hug of Death” as the most likely explanation since it doesn’t require multiple bad actors involved in a hidden conspiracy.
Eh, I’m going to let other people battle over DeepSeek’s content.
In the end I’m honestly not disturbed by DeepSeek. I commented elsewhere that this kind of innovation driven market disruption is normal in the tech industry. It’s been happening since at least the early 1950s when companies and even countries were contesting to be the top supplier of mainframes. (If you want more on this hit up the youtube channel “Asianometry”, he’s got a great series of informative videos on it.)
At this point it should be expected that any new field of tech, such as AI, will have at least two disruption events in the first decade (ish) after becoming mainstream. After that the market and the number of companies in it will expand for another decade(ish) and then as that market matures those companies will start down a path of consolidation.
So everyone, mostly investors, need to stop and breath for a few minutes. The rest of us can smile and get ready for the upcoming improvements.