I can’t imagine Blackwater and other PMCs have the bodies to replace the entire US military, and I’m skeptical that they could realistically recruit a comparable number of bodies that quickly for even less pay without the emergency recruitment tool that only the government has (conscription). Even if Trump did want to reshuffle everybody that’s currently in the military into a the private sector, what that would practically look like is firing them all, giving contracts to the preferred companies, then hoping that the fired people all apply for lower paying jobs at the preferred companies. Even assuming you got 100% of the fired soldiers to voluntarily do that, it’d be a massive, slow, and disruptive transition that would leave the imperial military totally ineffective until after the transition’s complete (if then) while also giving up conscription as a tool to backfill cannon fodder.
When the global capitalist business model depends on keeping a gun pointed at the head of the world, I can’t imagine who seriously considers putting down the gun for a bit and expecting the hostages to wait patiently while the empire takes it apart looking for ways to make a cheaper gun from the parts. I can’t imagine any world leader wouldn’t see even a temporary imperial demilitarization of that scale as the single best opportunity anyone will ever get to drive a stake through Dracula’s heart and act accordingly.
Can’t say no without being called a doomer; can’t say yes without being a utopian.
Under current conditions, there is no evidence of an organized proletarian movement in the global north capable of seizing and holding a city council. Conditions could obviously change rapidly in unpredictable ways, but it seems unlikely that anything approaching “revolution” is possible within the near future in the global north without a dramatic shift in material conditions like widespread economic or climate collapse that weakens the imperial state and proletarianizes the imperial labor aristocracy. Every currently existing “communist“ party that I know of in the global north with significant numbers (lol) is generally still deeply chauvinistic and ideologically opposed to any revolutionary action that involves violence (lol). If we’re saying that revolution is possible in the near term, but acknowledging that it would require fundamentally different material conditions that we can’t predict leading to the formation of new parties and movements that don’t currently exist, then it seems premature to speculate about what specifically that’s going to look like or when it’s going to happen.