Treating Russia as an equal and respectfully adhering to their demands and concerns would of been the smart, calculated play for the internationalist capitalist class from the beginning. Now it’s almost certainly too little too late, not to mention most of Europe is still stubbornly holding onto to their smug, toxic attitude against Russia.
Exactly, the boat has sailed already. The real problem the US has here is that they’ve just demonstrated that a new administration can change the whole policy on a dime. As a result, whatever deals are made have a 4 year horizon. I expect that Russia will want to normalize relations with the US, but any attempts to peel Russia away from China and the Global South will prove futile.
My concern is if western Europe can be convinced to detente with Russia (unlikely but who tf knows). In that case, I just hope the rich Russian man’s universal urge to retire to southern France/northern Italy is offset by the fear that the Russian populace will tie them up by their toes like a piñata for selling out the country to western business interests twice in one life time.
A fun fact about Russian economy is that state industry plays a fairly dominant role there. A 2023 World Bank study gives a pretty good overview. In particular, it distinguishes between businesses of the state (BOS), that are at least 10% government owned by some government, and state owned enterprises (SOE), which are majority owned or more, and controlled, by the government.
Top line result is shown in the following chart:
And here’s another chart showing SOE in Russia compared with China https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/state-owned-enterprises-global-economy-reason-concern
Russia is also an autarky being self sufficient in all the necessities. If rich people decide to flee west once the relations improve, it likely would be a good thing for Russia overall.
I’ve never been especially swayed by concerns of capital flight, though clearly the Russian economy is especially well insulated. I was just being flippantly facetious about Putin et al, who at one point really went way beyond any reasonable sense to try and have nice relations with the west. But, the broad coalition needed to keep the Communists out of power is far too fragile for Putin to do anything too purely self-interested—despite western insistence on his infinite dictatorial powers.
Otherwise, as Daniel Fried, a top former State Department official in both Republican and Democratic Party administrations, told Bloomberg News, lifting sanctions would be better held back as an incentive for Russia to keep to an eventual ceasefire.
So, never lifted or lifted piecemeal while Russia does what’s demanded in full. Yeah, I’m pretty sure even Kremlin libs know better at this point, Mr. Expert.
Overall Bloomberg’s version of sober just seems to be drinking every other day instead of being on an indefinite bender. Libs have their limits…
I hate Trump as much as the next Marxist but you gotta admit, it sure is something that he can upset the “powers that be” with such minimal effort. 3 years of this nonsense undone in 2 weeks.
What’s really funny here is that libs managed to make Trump look like a sophisticated negotiator by comparison.
What’s been undone? As far as I heard they basically agreed on…having talks about Ukraine later, normalising the diplomatic relationship and making presidents meet. Maybe. It’s all declarative at this point.
The fact that the US is talking directly to Russia and is clearly trying to normalize relations is a monumental shift in policy.
It’s mostly a shift in rhetoric. My point is that normalising the work of embassies is bare minimum for dialogue. We’ll see whether this is circus for western(mostly US) audience or an honest attempt at something workable when actual talks about Ukraine/economic disputes are underway. Big bad orange man is quite the populist after all.
I think it’s more than just a shift in rhetoric because they’ve already met and both sides said the talks were productive. This is a genuine attempt to resume dialog and diplomacy that was completely absent during Biden years. This should be understated.
Yeah, Trump actually does maybe 1 thing for every 10 things he says. No reason to credit him on anything at this point, especially as he’s claimed to have done things before (withdrawing troops from Syria) that in reality were thwarted by more competent people.
I understand giving credit where it’s due, but I can’t in this case. Trump has his own reich-wing and manipulative agenda, and most of the outrage of this is theater, and not addressing the actual problems.
“Surprisingly sober” only in that it recognizes what Trump is likely trying to do…the author still continues to repeat the same tired old mainstream tropes about the “unprovoked full-scale invasion”, lies about Zelensky’s popularity, the usual hand-waving away of the demand for elections in Ukraine, and of course complete denial of the Nazism and dictatorial nature of the Kiev regime. The piece continues to foster the delusion that there was a “better deal” Kiev could have gotten if only the West continued to go all-in on war.
I think it’s sober in a sense that it recognizes that Ukraine is just a pawn in relations between US and Russia, something that western media refused to admit up to no.
I was talking with a friend who was wondering why Zelensky was left out and I was like "If you are having an argument with someone, and using a hand puppet to hide behind. Then decide to talk to them face to face. Are you still going to wear the puppet? "
perfect analogy
