Yeah I don’t buy enough cafe coffee to make a price jump from $5 to $8 a cup a big shock (I might get one every couple of weeks), but I’ll be sad if prices shoot up for my home beans. How did they go from $3 a kilo to $13 a kilo over the past 4 years without coffee prices skyrocketing? Is the $3 a kilo from 2020 a cherry-picked number where it dropped to crazy-low prices because demand fell when cafes couldn’t open due to lockdown?
Demand is increasing all the time, climate change is making crop yields less reliable. Probably also complicated in that for espresso we’re all essentially trying to buy Arabica, but there’s also problems with the supply of Robusta more commonly used for instant.
In the last year Brazil has had a drought that’s impacted supply (and might have a consecutive one) of Arabica, and Vietnam has had both a drought and flooding impacting Robusta.
I guess my question wasn’t why prices went from $3 to $13 a kilo, my question was why doesn’t coffee (and especially roasted coffee beans) cost 4x as much?
Though as you’ve hinted, it might be that people had supply contracts so haven’t paid more until the contracts started to run out and now they have to sign new contracts at a much higher cost.
Oh right, yeah I suspect that’s it, in theory futures should cost in the likelihood of more droughts / floods so this could be a one off spike factoring in new (not at all new) information about climate risks ahead of a constant year on year rise in the future until coffee can’t grow anywhere (at least not coffee that tastes good).
For home beans, Prices are going up for the same beans, some will try to cut costs by buying cheaper beans to blend. But my supplier of choice, C4 out of chch has warned us of the market situation and that they will be putting prices up instead of compromising quality.
The advent calendar they do every year is eye opening to just how flavourful coffee can be. But I do enjoy the light roast funky processes, prepared in a pour over the best.
Your taste may vary. Their single origin lots are $70 - $150 a kg.
I’ve already mostly cut out takeaway coffee, but if prices head upwards I might start cracking out the tea a bit more often.
You lying British slag. Tea is shite innit. Innit?
Loose leaf beats beans any day, I reckon.
Get yourself a ginseng oolong and skip the coffee for a day and see how it goes
And given the amount of micro-plastics from tea bags seems like loose leaf is a sensible choice too!
Yeah I don’t buy enough cafe coffee to make a price jump from $5 to $8 a cup a big shock (I might get one every couple of weeks), but I’ll be sad if prices shoot up for my home beans. How did they go from $3 a kilo to $13 a kilo over the past 4 years without coffee prices skyrocketing? Is the $3 a kilo from 2020 a cherry-picked number where it dropped to crazy-low prices because demand fell when cafes couldn’t open due to lockdown?
Climate change & demand.
Demand is increasing all the time, climate change is making crop yields less reliable. Probably also complicated in that for espresso we’re all essentially trying to buy Arabica, but there’s also problems with the supply of Robusta more commonly used for instant.
In the last year Brazil has had a drought that’s impacted supply (and might have a consecutive one) of Arabica, and Vietnam has had both a drought and flooding impacting Robusta.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/28/business/coffee-prices-climate-change.html
Given futures are spiking, its also possible that its residual covid stimulus money still hunting for something to make money off.
I guess my question wasn’t why prices went from $3 to $13 a kilo, my question was why doesn’t coffee (and especially roasted coffee beans) cost 4x as much?
Though as you’ve hinted, it might be that people had supply contracts so haven’t paid more until the contracts started to run out and now they have to sign new contracts at a much higher cost.
Oh right, yeah I suspect that’s it, in theory futures should cost in the likelihood of more droughts / floods so this could be a one off spike factoring in new (not at all new) information about climate risks ahead of a constant year on year rise in the future until coffee can’t grow anywhere (at least not coffee that tastes good).
For home beans, Prices are going up for the same beans, some will try to cut costs by buying cheaper beans to blend. But my supplier of choice, C4 out of chch has warned us of the market situation and that they will be putting prices up instead of compromising quality.
Ooh I haven’t heard of C4 before. Might have to give them a go. Though $80+ for 1kg is even more than the $75 I’ve occasionally had from Ark.
The advent calendar they do every year is eye opening to just how flavourful coffee can be. But I do enjoy the light roast funky processes, prepared in a pour over the best. Your taste may vary. Their single origin lots are $70 - $150 a kg.
I’ve just got some new coffee (This time from Ozone), but will try to remember C4 for next time.