the approximately 34,000 Cybertrucks on the roads had five fire fatalities
They sold millions of Pintos. Sample size is important.
They included the guy who shot himself and then blew up the truck. That had nothing to do with the truck. That one death made up 20% of their fatalities.
I get paid to teach stats. So not my job here. But let me use common sense and see if that works.
Is a comparison valid? Of course it is. Connecticut has a population of about 3.5 million. Torrington CT has a population of around 35,000. Are you telling me that you can’t compare death rates in Torrington vs. the rest of Connecticut because of “statistics”?
You can compare whatever you want. But there are good comparisons and there are bad comparisons, and this is the latter.
Also we’re talking about cars that roll off an assembly line, not people. If the death rate is higher in people, do you blame the people? Another bad comparison.
What are you even talking about? Failure rates in manufacturing are governed by the same statistics rules as human errors or deaths for sufficiently large n. And 35,000 is sufficiently large n .
Jesus Christ. You really need this spelled out, don’t you?
Machines coming off an assembly line are almost completely identical, which you cannot say for humans.
We can fix errors in vehicle manufacturing very easily, which you also cannot say for humans.
You’re comparing death rates in humans across locales, which is looking for environmental variables and not biological ones. When comparing death rates among different vehicles, you’re looking for manufacturing errors.
This is a bad comparison and statistically insignificant.
So, Wikipedia says the Ford Pinto sold 3,173,491 units. This article says there were 27 Ford Pinto fatalities. The article also says the Cybertruck sold 34,000 units and there have been 5 fatalities.
Your point 2 aside, you’re not trying to argue that (5/34,000) / (27/3,173,491) isn’t approximately 17, right?
(Again, point 2 aside) is your point that 5 deaths (or rather 4 deaths if you don’t count the guy from point 2) out of 34,000 units isn’t a big enough sample size to draw conclusions and that you think it’s likely that as more units are sold, the rate won’t stay that high and over time the data will average out to a fatality rate less than that of the Ford Pinto?
One more question if I may. Are you a fan of Tesla?
you think it’s likely that as more units are sold, the rate won’t stay that high
That would be a prediction of the future that I’m not prepared to make, but I do suspect that will end up being the case. Assuming they ever even sell a million of them before ending production. All I will comment on is today, and the idea that first 34k Pintos probably had a much higher fatality rate than the last 3,139,491.
Are you a fan of Tesla?
I’m a fan of rational thought processes and statistics. Something I think very few people are capable of when it comes to anything having to do with Musk. The fact that Elon’s name is even in the headline leads me to believe that’s the case here as well. If you’re a “journalist”, you just can’t go wrong with anything to do with Elon.
Assuming they ever even sell a million of them before ending production.
You don’t think there’s anything magical about the number “a million”, though, correct? Just “enough to form a sufficiently good sample size” (whatever your threshold might be.)
Are you a fan of Tesla?
I’m a fan of rational thought processes and statistics…
You don’t think there’s anything magical about the number “a million”, though, correct?
Sure.
I can’t help but notice you dodged my question.
I didn’t dodge it, I chose not to engage because you’re looking to attack my character and derail the conversation rather than discussing the merit of my statements.
You want a source for my guess? It’s just basic and logic and reason that would lead one to deduce that they probably were working to fix the people dying problem, and issued fixes as they went along.
I thought that was the problem. Ford figured the payouts for the problems was less than the cost of the fix, so they left the problems in. That was after known fatalities. That was the basis for the Tyler Durden character in Fight Club.
Ford had to recall 1.5 million of the cars for the failure to limited fuel vapor from entering the cabin after every crash over 25 mph. THe proposed fix could have been implemented for a cost as low as $1.
That was the basis for the Tyler Durden character in Fight Club.
No, you just made that up. The scene in Fight Club did not name a specific vehicle or brand. He says “my company” and the vehicle depicted in the scene is clearly not a Pinto.
You are grabbing on to a misquote about a fictional character while you drown over the important detail that you were fully wrong on your assertion about the Pinto.
100% of the pintos had a deadly fault and it was not addressed after release until 100% of the cars made at the time were recalled. The early pintos and the subsequent ones 1971 - 1976 were just as deadly . You are fully factually wrong on your assertion above. There is no quarter for your to bad faith argument that the early pinto was worse.
The sample size was the 1.5 million cars made between 1971 and 1976.
1.5 million is the sample size you need to spread the 51 deaths and incidents over . Not some imaginary time where it was fixed early on making the sample size small enough to fit your thesis.
It is very well documented . It’s the MOST covered event in US car safety history.
1.5 million is the sample size you need to spread the 51 deaths and incidents over
You are arguing out of ignorance because you couldn’t be bothered to simply read my comment before replying. 1.5M is <50% of the total vehicles manufactured, not 100%. The sample size was 3,173,491 and the number of deaths was 27.
You are fully factually wrong on your assertion above. Your data is wrong. You are wrong.
3 fatalities happened in the same Cybertruck, so this is a grand total of 2 crashes that legitimately resulted in deaths. One just happened to have a large number of occupants.
Even if you weren’t wrong, you’re operating under the premise that Tesla will (or would even be legally permitted to) follow the same path as Ford did 50 years ago and deny and ignore deaths to save pennies and ounces (it’s a 6500lb pickup truck, no one is counting ounces).
There are 3 types of lies; lies, damned lies, and statistics. This is an excellent example of the third one.
They sold millions of Pintos. Sample size is important.
They included the guy who shot himself and then blew up the truck. That had nothing to do with the truck. That one death made up 20% of their fatalities.
Bad journalism is bad.
It’s reported as the rate per 100,000 units. So that’s accounted for.
Bad commenting is bad.
the total sample is between 0 and 34,000 across the past couple years. You are mixing up sample, 34,000 is actually a remarkably large sample size.
Maybe you dont understand clustering
do enlighten me then.
I’d suggest you familiarize yourself with the concept of sample sizes.
Dude. I’ve taught statistics. I don’t think you understand what you’re arguing here. lol.
Why don’t you bring me up to speed instead of levying personal attacks and then disappearing?
I get paid to teach stats. So not my job here. But let me use common sense and see if that works.
Is a comparison valid? Of course it is. Connecticut has a population of about 3.5 million. Torrington CT has a population of around 35,000. Are you telling me that you can’t compare death rates in Torrington vs. the rest of Connecticut because of “statistics”?
You can compare whatever you want. But there are good comparisons and there are bad comparisons, and this is the latter.
Also we’re talking about cars that roll off an assembly line, not people. If the death rate is higher in people, do you blame the people? Another bad comparison.
What are you even talking about? Failure rates in manufacturing are governed by the same statistics rules as human errors or deaths for sufficiently large n. And 35,000 is sufficiently large n .
It’s a valid comparison and statistically sound.
Jesus Christ. You really need this spelled out, don’t you?
Machines coming off an assembly line are almost completely identical, which you cannot say for humans.
We can fix errors in vehicle manufacturing very easily, which you also cannot say for humans.
You’re comparing death rates in humans across locales, which is looking for environmental variables and not biological ones. When comparing death rates among different vehicles, you’re looking for manufacturing errors.
This is a bad comparison and statistically insignificant.
So, Wikipedia says the Ford Pinto sold 3,173,491 units. This article says there were 27 Ford Pinto fatalities. The article also says the Cybertruck sold 34,000 units and there have been 5 fatalities.
Your point 2 aside, you’re not trying to argue that
(5/34,000) / (27/3,173,491)isn’t approximately 17, right?(Again, point 2 aside) is your point that 5 deaths (or rather 4 deaths if you don’t count the guy from point 2) out of 34,000 units isn’t a big enough sample size to draw conclusions and that you think it’s likely that as more units are sold, the rate won’t stay that high and over time the data will average out to a fatality rate less than that of the Ford Pinto?
One more question if I may. Are you a fan of Tesla?
That would be a prediction of the future that I’m not prepared to make, but I do suspect that will end up being the case. Assuming they ever even sell a million of them before ending production. All I will comment on is today, and the idea that first 34k Pintos probably had a much higher fatality rate than the last 3,139,491.
I’m a fan of rational thought processes and statistics. Something I think very few people are capable of when it comes to anything having to do with Musk. The fact that Elon’s name is even in the headline leads me to believe that’s the case here as well. If you’re a “journalist”, you just can’t go wrong with anything to do with Elon.
You don’t think there’s anything magical about the number “a million”, though, correct? Just “enough to form a sufficiently good sample size” (whatever your threshold might be.)
I can’t help but notice you dodged my question.
Sure.
I didn’t dodge it, I chose not to engage because you’re looking to attack my character and derail the conversation rather than discussing the merit of my statements.
Ok, so instead of the Cybertruck being 17 times deadlier than the Ford Pinto, it’s only 13.6 times deadlier. Wow, thanks for pointing this out.
See 1.
Source?
@Ulrich@feddit.org is absolutely correct
Can you point out specifically where it says that the first 34k pintos had a higher fatality rate? I read page 9 and didn’t see it.
Pintos had an over two orders of magnitude higher mortality rate then the numbers used in the original “analysis“. The rest of this is moot.
You want a source for my guess? It’s just basic and logic and reason that would lead one to deduce that they probably were working to fix the people dying problem, and issued fixes as they went along.
I thought that was the problem. Ford figured the payouts for the problems was less than the cost of the fix, so they left the problems in. That was after known fatalities. That was the basis for the Tyler Durden character in Fight Club.
Here is a link to the story of Fords part in the problem https://www.tortmuseum.org/ford-pinto/
Ford had to recall 1.5 million of the cars for the failure to limited fuel vapor from entering the cabin after every crash over 25 mph. THe proposed fix could have been implemented for a cost as low as $1.
No, you just made that up. The scene in Fight Club did not name a specific vehicle or brand. He says “my company” and the vehicle depicted in the scene is clearly not a Pinto.
You are grabbing on to a misquote about a fictional character while you drown over the important detail that you were fully wrong on your assertion about the Pinto.
100% of the pintos had a deadly fault and it was not addressed after release until 100% of the cars made at the time were recalled. The early pintos and the subsequent ones 1971 - 1976 were just as deadly . You are fully factually wrong on your assertion above. There is no quarter for your to bad faith argument that the early pinto was worse.
The sample size was the 1.5 million cars made between 1971 and 1976.
1.5 million is the sample size you need to spread the 51 deaths and incidents over . Not some imaginary time where it was fixed early on making the sample size small enough to fit your thesis.
It is very well documented . It’s the MOST covered event in US car safety history.
Your data is wrong . You are wrong.
You are arguing out of ignorance because you couldn’t be bothered to simply read my comment before replying. 1.5M is <50% of the total vehicles manufactured, not 100%. The sample size was 3,173,491 and the number of deaths was 27.
You are fully factually wrong on your assertion above. Your data is wrong. You are wrong.
3 fatalities happened in the same Cybertruck, so this is a grand total of 2 crashes that legitimately resulted in deaths. One just happened to have a large number of occupants.
Even if you weren’t wrong, you’re operating under the premise that Tesla will (or would even be legally permitted to) follow the same path as Ford did 50 years ago and deny and ignore deaths to save pennies and ounces (it’s a 6500lb pickup truck, no one is counting ounces).
There are 3 types of lies; lies, damned lies, and statistics. This is an excellent example of the third one.
Still Ford sold the pinto for many years never implementing a fix for the exploding gas tank while knowing it happens.
He did not say “my company”:
Yes he does. Try actually watching the scene.