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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • I came here to point out exactly this: If you only shrink the ball, without reducing its size, well… you’re gonna have problems carrying the ammo.

    As a DM, I think I would let them both shrink and reduce the mass, and wait till they fired the weapon before invoking “conservation of momentum” and declaring that the cannon ball drops to the ground after about a meter.



  • It’s not just me right: We’ve definitely seen a systematic fall in daily casualties from the ≈ 2000 we were seeing a little while back, right?

    I’m wondering what this means: Is russia slowing down the pace of attacks? They haven’t been making any gains that would suggest the defence is faltering as far as I can tell, and it’s not like they’re suddenly using more armour, so the only explanation I can see is that fewer people are dying because fewer are assaulting in the first place.





  • Lots of good points here. I think it’s worth underscoring that even though all these deep strikes are done using Ukrainian drones, the supply of medium range missiles and fighter jets likely massively facilitates them, by forcing russia to concentrate air defences in regions exposed to those weapons.

    Hell, just the fact that an F16 could be in the area has a suppressing effect, as it makes the russians more careful in turning on AA radar, which is exposed to HARM’s.

    I think what we’re seeing is the Ukrainians taking maximum advantage of domestic weapons production and the AA dilemma russia is in. This is only going to get better.


  • This has to be the clearest indicator anyone could ask for that russia is running on fumes. I can’t think of any other reason they would be sending people on crutches into assaults.

    We’re seeing this more and more often lately, just the past couple days there have been videos of wounded being used to move supplies to the front line, and of wounded being discharged from the hospital before they’ve recovered in order to return to the front.

    No army that is working in a sustainable way and can replace its losses works like that.



  • A key mark of any effective organisation, and one of the advantages we’ve seen time and again that democratic nations militaries over authoritarian nations ones, is perfectly illustrated here: The willingness to criticise one’s own leadership and established procedures.

    By acknowledging what doesn’t work, it becomes possible to improve. Hopefully leadership is able to learn from this, and provide more effective training in the future. I seem to remember reading that basic training has been extended recently, that could help.



  • I dont know exactly what you mean by “collapse”, but they’re obviously spending far more money than what they can sustain.

    They’re spending a lot on keeping the looks good and suppressing information and protests, but you can only keep people who can’t afford food or a home suppressed for so long.

    Not saying that is the case now, but with an interest rate at > 20 %, and decreasing industrial output, they’re going to reach a breaking point sometime.

    Just think about the fact that in any democratic country, the current economic situation in Russia would have caused the government to be thrown out long ago- even without considering all the casualties from the war.

    I definitely think that Russia at some point will be unable to keep the people locked down, and that the current people in charge will be forced out of power. The resulting degree of fragmentation, power struggle, and “collapse” of the Russian Federation just depends on how far they are able to draw the string before it snaps.