I don’t know if I’m going crazy but looking at the current situation in the world … please tell me that I’m overexagurating
No. It’s bad for the economy.
The number one thing I’ve learned through the last several decades is that if it’s bad for the economy, no one will do it. Greed is the number one driver of everything right now. Maybe that will change, but I doubt it. Look at all the positive progress we try to make, it’s stopped the second anyone rich would lose any money.
To the wealthy, volatility is opportunity. Yeah, the market will go down for a while, and later it’ll go back up. Billionaires will cash in both ways.
You could not be more wrong
It’s bad for certain parts of the economy and it is dangerous for current rulers.
Economy is cyclical, always either heading into a recession or coming out of a recession. A capitalist society requires constant money flow for expansion which is why interest rates are lowered during recessive times to stimulate expenditure and raised during peak to control expansion. World wars put spending into overdrive.
Nah, there won’t be WW3. Instead we get countries sabotaging each other via hacking critical infrastructure, proxy wars, propaganda, trade wars.
I doubt there will ever be a direct “hot war” between the top five nuclear powers ever again.
WW3 is not what’s gonna kill people, climate change is more likely gonna be humanity’s downfall.
The situation today is nowhere near as bad as the Cold War.
Think of it this way. All of the 0.01%ers in china, USA and Russia share the same tastes and values. Think any of them are really hot to blow up their nice places on the Rivera?
I am personally looking for a few things that will concern me about escalation:
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Japan and Finland making active land claims to Russia (actively reoccupying disputed land with troops)
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Europe putting peace keepers in Western Ukraine (which will create a casus belli for war with Russia), specifically France and the UK. I mean, Poland as well, but if Poland says they are putting peacekeeping troops in Ukraine, Russia should either back off or assume war.
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South Korean troops in Ukraine. (Ridiculous given their current chaos, but stranger things have happened in the last year).
Other than that, the russian frog has been very well boiled for 3 years. Even China has probably gone back to the drawing board on a taiwan invasion, and added a delay until 10 millions drones are available.
I do have concerns trump will pull the us back in europe, making the second item above possible if not likely. The first trump presidency shook us primacy in europe, and the second may see it start to unravel. If europe has to take russia alone, the us should consider china a personal problem from now on (as well as any other concerns not near europe), as no one will see value in going to war with a fair-weather ally.
Finland won’t make any claims. This much is certain.
The only way we would even consider restoring the stolen lands would be IF the Russian Federation falls and IF the initiative for reunification would come from the Karelian Republic.
I agree with both of you in principle, but who really had N Korea troops in meat wave assaults on their 2024 bingo cards?
That was pretty wild development, yes. But still, we will not make any territorial claims. Doing so would effectively render the protection provided by NATO’s Article 5 null. We would once again be alone against a nuclear power with much larger resources than we could ever have.
So we won’t be doing that.
<i>Finland making active land claims to Russia (actively reoccupying disputed land with troops)</i>
I can guarantee you that there is no territory the Finns would try to reclaim from Russia. The Continuation war pretty much sated any future thought to regain territory seized by the Soviet Union
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brilliant
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did you not hear when Trump threatened to annex greenland, panama and bomb México?
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The same Trump who supported bombing the shit out of Gaza to “finish the job”?
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What’s his bluster? America invaded two countries less then 30 years ago under gop leadership in case you missed that.
Not to mention he is threatening to invade more now. Don’t pretend like America isn’t a war loving nation in general.
I think it has already started. It just hasn’t consolidated yet.
I don’t think so.
Primarily because there’s not economic benefit in it for the ruling class.
Also, we’ve made the experience of the war in the middle east around 2000 where the USA couldn’t even occupy a farmer’s state for more than a couple years.
I don’t think anybody realistically thinks they can take over another (big) country in this time.
Famously the same was said about WWI re the economic benefit.
Primarily because there’s not economic benefit in it for the ruling class.
Our history of perpetual war seems to disprove this
Nah we’re speedrunning the 20s currently, so it’ll probably be another ten, fifteen years or so.
Could already be going. We didn’t name them World War 1 and World War 2 until after they were over
Is already going for the last 10 years.
I think that the true world war 3 will not be nations against nations, but citizens against their own nations. The stage is set for an actual paradigm shift or system annihilation. We will not support civilization if it doesn’t change, either the people destroy the pyramid or the pyramid will destroy the world.
I kinda doubt that will happen. For instance, look at Venezuela: Venezuelans are beyond fed up with Maduro’s dictatorship, but there’s nothing they can do against the government forces.
Governments will do anything they can to prevent a paradigm change.
Westerners sure do seem to think they know the feelings of citizens of other countries better than those citizens themselves.
Venezuela has been hurt by sanctions because the government was helping the people. The wealthy people of Venezuela don’t like the government because it is more socialist.
It is the poorer population that suffers the most. That’s the reason Venezuela has such a big emigration crisis, and every latinamerican country has also seen such a massive influx of poor emigrants. I experience this firsthand, almost daily.
It is not rich people that the militia constantly murders/kidnap.
It’s also difficult to get an honest picture of what is happening there as pretty much all western media has blatantly supported the more than a dozen coup attempts by the USA since 2000 alone. Folks who are able to get out are also biased in one way or another. We can empathize with their lived experience and try to help the immigrants without taking their personal experience to be the absolute truth of the experiences of all Venezuelans. But again, most of the issues that affect the citizens are directly caused by US sanctions, not Maduro or the government.
I can believe that the poor folks would suffer the most so I can’t disagree with you there, but Venezuela is a bad comparison to make, per your original comment I posted to, as far as the point you were trying to make on the orginal thread topic.
It is not my intention to be rude. I’m from Colombia, follow Venezuela’s status closely (from media on a broad range of the political spectrum) see Venezuelan emmigrants daily and have met quite a few Venezuelans, and yet Lemmy is the only place I’ve ever seen with people really convinced that Venezuelans love Maduro, and the current situation of the country is because of the sanctions.
It feels almost surreal, and reminds me when some people on Reddit were convinced they knew better than me what’s my country’s political status, all while mistakenly calling the country “Columbia”.
I’m not trying to argue that you should blindly trust my opinions here, but really, really, Venezuela is in a bad spot, nobody likes Maduro’s dictatorship, and the sanctions are not the main causes of any of that (but they do help). Either that or somehow almost everybody in whole Latin American has a very biased opinion from first-hand experiences, and only people from other continents can see that.
It’s laughable to argue that the main source of their economic issues are not the sanctions.
This tells me that you are not arguing in good faith.
You being from Columbia and having met a few Venezuelan immigrants is anecdotal evidence.
I also am friends and know some Venezuelan immigrants.
If someone who went to Harvard and has a trust fund leaves the United States and they tell foreigners what it was like for them growing up, how similar to the average American is their experience… not very similar at all…
We can help the guy from Harvard but his lived experience is not the absolute truth of all Americans……
This is what I mean.
Likewise, if someone was born an orphan in a bankrupt church, their lived experience is not all Americans lived experience…
Edit: it’s also somewhat reasonable to assume that maduro supporters would not be leaving the country
You missed the entire point of the comment by incorrectly calling my country “Columbia”. I don’t even know what to say.
Let’s not waste any of our time and go ask in any Venezuelan forum about the topic.
Nice dodging of all points in the previous post!
Just a thought but in democracies people don’t tend to emigrate when the “other side” wins the election.
You must mean venezuelans living in the US. Maduro won elections in Venezuela.
Yeah, the rigged ones lol. There’s even mathematical evidence of it being rigged, with votes accounting for exact percentages with just 2 decimal places, for every single candidate.
Venezuela hasn’t publish the official acts, nor let international observers be present in the elections. There was heavy repression on elections day as well, plus some offices not letting people vote.
Is it really a dictatorship?
Absolutely, yes.
Wasn’t their current president a bus driver who rose up through politics? I had seen a mention of that in some online discussion.
Also, that the USAmerican govt has issues with Venezuela nationalising their oil and acting as a competitor to the petro-dolla system
So would they just be a adversary country, which may likely be conservative, rather than a dictatorial one?
Bus drivers can be dictators as well. It’s less about the person and more about the political situation. In Venezuelas case oppression of the opposition and unfair elections
Well they elected a president the West doesn’t like, so yes.
Paint me a picture of what you think that looks like. Here’s my painting: Everybody marches on their capitals, everyone gets gunned down with 30mm cannonfire, the Americans are gunned down holding pistols and rifles everyone else is gunned down holding pitchforks and torches.
who’s doing the gunning? we dont have that many combat robots yet, and i still have hope that communication is open enough and most people aren’t too brainwashed to realize firing on your own countrypeople is bad.
but we better do sonething before these change.
So, WW3 won’t happen until the oligarchy says it’s time. Not sure why now would be the time, but I suppose it could be. There’s like a billion people in the world making a dollar a day, a few billion people only making a few dollars a day… That’s a few billion dollars per day the oligarchy almost certainly thinks belongs in their pocket instead. So I could see them continuing to squeeze the world for every last drop of wealth, which I think will cause unrest in a lot of places. Add climate change to that and I think things just get bad everywhere for most people. Obviously the oligarchy will just go to their islands, yachts, bunkers until a few billion are dead and they can pop back out with their private armies ready to “save” the world.
A lot of people think they need us to buy their trinkets, but the entire consumer middle class is only like 100 years old, and I think was only designed to keep us distracted while they plundered the world. Now that a small handful of people own everything, and soon enough robots and AI will replace most human labor, it’s mission accomplished and we can go back to feudalism where they are gods and everyone else is slaves.
It already started.
There are bad things happening in the world, conflicts, ecological disasters, economic upheavels, and political upheavals. It’s easy to look at these bad things and assume things are much worse than they are. Nobody wants there to be a world war 3.
I highly doubt that WWIII will happen (within the next few years), however I forsee the next several years to not be peacful. There will be several (regional/civil) despites that will most likley occur and the chances of any of them escalating is highly unlikley. Here are the conflicts I forsee:
- Continued Syrian Civil War: wont be pretty but escalation is unlikely
- Palestinian occupation: Will absolutely continue to be horrific but none of the neighboring Arab counties care enough to escalate (or risk US aid)
- Russia/Ukraine war: Russia will get some territory and thats about it, probrally just the Russian majority areas. After that the EU will intimidate Russia to back off.
- India/China border dispute: They’ll make a lot of noise, actural fighting is unlikely
- US/Canada/Mexico/Greenland conflict: Who knows tbh, most likley Trump is running off his mouth as always
- China/Taiwan: I severly doubt it, in addition the US is moving microchip manufacturing to the US so strategic value may loosen
Worst case scenario here is a full blown war between the EU and Russia, the US likley wont get involved (Trump doesnt care about Europe) and neither will China (both counties might send aid respectively). It would probrally end with Russia surrendering followed by them loosing no land and maybe a regime change plus some political reforms.
Russia/Ukraine war: Russia will get some territory and thats about it, probrally just the Russian majority areas. After that the EU will intimidate Russia to back off.
How do you imagine the EU will do that exactly? The EU has no military industrial capacity to speak of, it doesn’t have access to cheap energy, and it’s becoming politically unstable. A far more likely scenario here is that the EU starts breaking up, and nationalist parties start realigning their countries towards Russia because the US will leave EU to hang.
I would imagine that if Russian agression continues than nationalist parties would loose steam
It’s a highly unlikely scenario that Russia would want to expand the war pat Ukraine, and everybody with a functioning brain understands that. What will happen is that Russia will take over all the territory in Ukraine that’s either pro Russian or neutral.
The rest will be left as a problem for the west to deal with. It’s going to be a dysfunctional rump state that’s not economically self sufficient, and where there will be massive resentment towards the west over the betrayal. If Europe allows it to fall then they will be faced with a new refugee crisis, and if they don’t then it’s an economic black hole that they have to keep pouring money into. Either scenario will only make the already desperate economic situation in Europe even worse than it is now.
It’s going to be easy for Russia to make deals with individual countries as public unrest in Europe continues to grow. Hungary and Slovakia have already flipped to Russia, it’s likely only a matter of time before Romania, Czech Republic, Germany, and France do as well. At that point we’re looking at the end of EU, and possibly the end of NATO as well. Especially given that the US will almost certainly be pulling back under Trump.
Russia/Ukraine war: Russia will get some territory and thats about it, probrally just the Russian majority areas. After that the EU will intimidate Russia to back off.
This is one may cool down. Definitely would not have under Harris. This is the big ww3 fear.
India/China border dispute: They’ll make a lot of noise, actural fighting is unlikely
They have resolved their territorial dispute, or at least made a major agreement that mostly resolves it.
We already are, just in a smaller scale than ww1 and 2
