Your confidence in this statement is hilarious the fact that it doesn’t help your argument at all. If anything, the fact they refined their model so well on older hardware is even more remarkable, and quite damning when OpenAI claims it needs literally cities worth of power and resources to train their models.

AI is overblown, tech is overblown. Capitalism itself is a senseless death cult based on the non-sensical idea that infinite growth is possible with a fragile, finite system.

"You see, dear grandchildren, your grandfather used to have an apple orchard. The fruits were so sweet and nutritious that every town citizen wanted a taste because they thought it was the only possible orchard in the world. Therefore the citizens gave a lot of money to your grandfather because the citizens thought the orchard would give them more apples in return, more than the worth of the money they gave. Little did they know the world was vastly larger than our ever more arid US wasteland. Suddenly an oriental orchard was discovered which was surprisingly cheaper to plant, maintain, and produced more apples. This meant a significant potential loss of money for the inhabitants of the town called Idiocracy. Therefore, many people asked their money back by selling their imaginary not-yet-grown apples to people who think the orchard will still be worth more in the future.

This is called investing, children, it can make a lot of money, but it destroys the soul and our habitat at the same time, which goes unnoticed by all these people with advanced degrees. So think again when you hear someone speak with fancy words and untamed confidence. Many a times their reasoning falls below the threshold of dog poop. But that’s a story for another time. Sweet dreams."

Let’s say I make a thing. Let’s say somebody offers to buy it from me for $10. I sell it to them, and then let’s say somebody else makes a better thing, and now no one will pay more than $2 for my thing. If my thing is a publicly traded corporation, then that just “wiped off” $8 from the stock market. The person I sold it to “lost” $8. Corporations that make AI and the hardware to run it just “lost” a lot of value.

Basically US company’s involved in AI have been grossly over valued for the last few years due to having a sudo monopoly over AI tech (companies like open ai who make chat gpt and nvidia who make graphics cards used to run ai models)

Deep seek (Chinese company) just released a free, open source version of chat gpt that cost a fraction of the price to train (setup) which has caused the US stock valuations to drop as investors are realising the US isn’t the only global player, and isn’t nearly as far ahead as previously thought.

Nvidia is losing value as it was previously believed that top of the line graphics cards were required for ai, but turns out they are not. Nvidia have geared their company strongly towards providing for ai in recent times.

I asked it about Tiananmen Square, it told me it can’t answer that because it can only respond with “harmless” responses.

Yes but your server can’t handle the biggest LLM.

So can I have a private version of it that doesn’t tell everyone about me and my questions?

OpenAI could use less hardware to get similar performance if they used the Chinese version, but they already have enough hardware to run their model.

Theoretically the best move for them would be to train their own, larger model using the same technique (as to still fully utilize their hardware) but this is easier said than done.

Not necessarily… if I gave you my “faster car” for you to run on your private 7 lane highway, you can definitely squeeze every last bit of the speed the car gives, but no more.

DeepSeek works as intended on 1% of the hardware the others allegedly “require” (allegedly, remember this is all a super hype bubble)… if you run it on super powerful machines, it will perform nicer but only to a certain extend… it will not suddenly develop more/better qualities just because the hardware it runs on is better

It’s not multimodal so I’d have to imagine it wouldn’t be worth pursuing in that regard.

Yes but have you considered that “china bad”?

Aren’t VPNs illegal in China?

It’s based on guessing what the actual worth of AI is going to be, so yeah, wildly speculative at this point because breakthroughs seem to be happening fairly quickly, and everyone is still figuring out what they can use it for.

There are many clear use cases that are solid, so AI is here to stay, that’s for certain. But how far can it go, and what will it require is what the market is gambling on.

If out of the blue comes a new model that delivers similar results on a fraction of the hardware, then it’s going to chop it down by a lot.

If someone finds another use case, for example a model with new capabilities, boom value goes up.

It’s a rollercoaster…

That, and they are just brute forcing the problem. Neural nets have been around for ever but it’s only been the last 5 or so years they could do anything. There’s been little to no real breakthrough innovation as they just keep throwing more processing power at it with more inputs, more layers, more nodes, more links, more CUDA.

And their chasing a general AI is just the short sighted nature of them wanting to replace workers with something they don’t have to pay and won’t argue about it’s rights.

TSMC just finished building out a foundry in Arizona, so there’s a nativist argument that we don’t need the island’s original facilities anymore.

That’s the thing: if the cost of AI goes down , and AI is a valuable input to businesses that should be a good thing for the economy. To be sure, not for the tech sector that sells these models, but for all of the companies buying these services it should be great.

Economy =/= stock market

On the brightside, the clear fragility and lack of direct connection to real productive forces shows the instability of the present system.

how long do you think it’ll take before the west decides to block all access to the model?

You’re watching an empire in decline. It’s words stopped matching its actions decades ago.

Don’t forget about the tariffs too! The US economy is actually a joke that can’t compete on the world stage anymore except by welding their enormous capital from a handful of tech billionaires.

Yep. It’s obviously a bubble, but one that won’t pop from just this, the motive is replacing millions of employees with automation, and the bubble will pop when it’s clear that won’t happen, or when the technology is mature enough that we stop expecting rapid improvement.

Yeah, after what happened, I now understand how irrational stock market is.